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Bubble, Dream or Trouble?
泡沫－夢想還是夢饜？
From PTT_Fund 版友 isaacchen 雙語出品
1. The fact of bubbles 泡沫本質
To reject the concession of common opinion requires one's courage; especially, one might need to bear the doubt concerning such decision making either from oneself or others, for a coming period of time.
違逆市場一致看好的方向是需要勇氣的，特別是在短期內、甚至是不算短的一段時期內，必須忍受來自自身以及他人對於此判斷正確與否的懷疑。
As to the theory and features of historical bubbles, we have known and read a lot which the concept seems a cliche to us. But it is rarely discussed that, how could people be so stupid that they make it again and agin?Maybe, we could resort to one of the biggest bubbles in 20st century - Japanese experience.
有關泡沫的歷史原理和特性，在課本和坊間的書籍已經成了某種的陳腔濫調，但很少討論到為何人會一再地重蹈覆轍？或許，看看堪稱本世紀最大泡沫之一的日本經驗，可以有些靈感。
The Nikkei reached 10000 points in year 1983; the 5000 points earning demanded a ten-year effort. And later it only costed three years to target 20000 points. The stock continued to soar above 30000 points for another year, and met its final end around 38000 points during the last five months. Sadly, it couldn't last any shorter than it really was...
日經指數在1973年站上5000點，花了10年的時間才爬到萬點(1983)。短短的5000點爬了10年，但是很快的上到兩萬點的時間只花了3年，上到30000點更少，只花不到1年。而最後飆上歷史最高點3萬八更只花了五個月，而後....
The lure of bubble could be compared to suspense of harvest. The later we harvest, the more we get. And the required time for deferred harvest is getting shorter as the bubble grows, in which we feel guilty if we don't buy the method, or bubble.
泡沫的迷人在於，越後段的果實越大顆，成熟所需的時間也越短，讓人不強摘都覺得對不起自己。
But the suspended harvest attracts danger. Once the harvest is severly damaged by the storm, the farmer is destined to lose his stance. For those who sow and harvest only what they need, though they may not have the comparatively abundant harvest, they could still have a good year to enjoy.
不過，強摘的果子不甜，泡沫一但破裂，死在山頂解套的機會幾乎是零。而在底部默默耕種的農夫，縱然沒有機獲得速成的果實，卻往往能夠持盈保泰、持續地歡喜收割。
All bubbles seem ridiculous after they shrink. The story that Kyoko's land price overtakes the totol of California's is narrated repeatedly as a joke. However, do you know this kind of event exists just at the age we live?
所有的泡沫事後總是讓人覺得荒謬，東京的皇居大於加州房地產總值的笑話總是被人一再傳頌。但是，你知道嗎？這樣的情事其實正在你我所處的時代上演。
When PetroChina becomes the world's largest company, twice as big as Exxon Mobile, in terms of market value, you should know it is bubble.
When the price of real estate somewhere in Bombay or Shanghi soars as high as in Tokyo, you should know it is bubble.
When all the developing countries consent to boost the stock and foreign exchange, you should know it is bubble, cause it is no way that they deserve the similar reward.
當中石油市值飆破Exxon Mobile一倍時，你就該知道那是泡沫；當上海或孟買某些地段的房地產直逼東京，你就該知道那是泡沫；當所有的新興國家不分好壞、有志一同地股匯齊漲，你就該知道那是泡沫。
因為不同國家的發展狀況不該得到一樣的獎賞。
When the bubble pumps, it always can find "dream" to backup its value. In 80s, we have so-called the courageous idea of "Japan No.1" In 90s, we have so-called Price-Dreaming Ratio in Nasdaq. And how about 00s?
泡沫擴大時，總是會用「夢想」來支撐其存在之價值：80年代有「日本第一」，90年代有 Nasdaq 所謂的「本夢比」，00年代呢.....？
The bubble may bring people fortune, but it can never help the nation extend from nowhere. The reason is: money is fluid, while the development needs time and hard working, step by step. We could apply the rule to either national development, or personal investment as well. We should found our dream upon a solid ground.
However, the solid dream is unwelcome, sometimes even detestable. That's why we can't escape tragedies of bubbles, repeatedly, in history.
泡沫或許可以帶來財富，卻絕對無法讓國家發展一步登天。原因在於：錢是流動的，發展卻是要腳踏實地下去一磚一瓦、用時間來換取進步。任何妄想一步登天的夢想都是要栽跟頭的，無論是國家發展、或是個人投資都是一樣，築夢要踏實。
很遺憾地，踏實的夢往往不受歡迎，甚至受到唾棄，也因此註定泡沫的悲劇將不斷歷史重演。
2. Where is the safe place? 安全標的在哪？
To be continued..
(待續...)
泡沫－夢想還是夢饜？
From PTT_Fund 版友 isaacchen 雙語出品
1. The fact of bubbles 泡沫本質
To reject the concession of common opinion requires one's courage; especially, one might need to bear the doubt concerning such decision making either from oneself or others, for a coming period of time.
違逆市場一致看好的方向是需要勇氣的，特別是在短期內、甚至是不算短的一段時期內，必須忍受來自自身以及他人對於此判斷正確與否的懷疑。
As to the theory and features of historical bubbles, we have known and read a lot which the concept seems a cliche to us. But it is rarely discussed that, how could people be so stupid that they make it again and agin?Maybe, we could resort to one of the biggest bubbles in 20st century - Japanese experience.
有關泡沫的歷史原理和特性，在課本和坊間的書籍已經成了某種的陳腔濫調，但很少討論到為何人會一再地重蹈覆轍？或許，看看堪稱本世紀最大泡沫之一的日本經驗，可以有些靈感。
The Nikkei reached 10000 points in year 1983; the 5000 points earning demanded a ten-year effort. And later it only costed three years to target 20000 points. The stock continued to soar above 30000 points for another year, and met its final end around 38000 points during the last five months. Sadly, it couldn't last any shorter than it really was...
日經指數在1973年站上5000點，花了10年的時間才爬到萬點(1983)。短短的5000點爬了10年，但是很快的上到兩萬點的時間只花了3年，上到30000點更少，只花不到1年。而最後飆上歷史最高點3萬八更只花了五個月，而後....
The lure of bubble could be compared to suspense of harvest. The later we harvest, the more we get. And the required time for deferred harvest is getting shorter as the bubble grows, in which we feel guilty if we don't buy the method, or bubble.
泡沫的迷人在於，越後段的果實越大顆，成熟所需的時間也越短，讓人不強摘都覺得對不起自己。
But the suspended harvest attracts danger. Once the harvest is severly damaged by the storm, the farmer is destined to lose his stance. For those who sow and harvest only what they need, though they may not have the comparatively abundant harvest, they could still have a good year to enjoy.
不過，強摘的果子不甜，泡沫一但破裂，死在山頂解套的機會幾乎是零。而在底部默默耕種的農夫，縱然沒有機獲得速成的果實，卻往往能夠持盈保泰、持續地歡喜收割。
All bubbles seem ridiculous after they shrink. The story that Kyoko's land price overtakes the totol of California's is narrated repeatedly as a joke. However, do you know this kind of event exists just at the age we live?
所有的泡沫事後總是讓人覺得荒謬，東京的皇居大於加州房地產總值的笑話總是被人一再傳頌。但是，你知道嗎？這樣的情事其實正在你我所處的時代上演。
When PetroChina becomes the world's largest company, twice as big as Exxon Mobile, in terms of market value, you should know it is bubble.
When the price of real estate somewhere in Bombay or Shanghi soars as high as in Tokyo, you should know it is bubble.
When all the developing countries consent to boost the stock and foreign exchange, you should know it is bubble, cause it is no way that they deserve the similar reward.
當中石油市值飆破Exxon Mobile一倍時，你就該知道那是泡沫；當上海或孟買某些地段的房地產直逼東京，你就該知道那是泡沫；當所有的新興國家不分好壞、有志一同地股匯齊漲，你就該知道那是泡沫。
因為不同國家的發展狀況不該得到一樣的獎賞。
When the bubble pumps, it always can find "dream" to backup its value. In 80s, we have so-called the courageous idea of "Japan No.1" In 90s, we have so-called Price-Dreaming Ratio in Nasdaq. And how about 00s?
泡沫擴大時，總是會用「夢想」來支撐其存在之價值：80年代有「日本第一」，90年代有 Nasdaq 所謂的「本夢比」，00年代呢.....？
The bubble may bring people fortune, but it can never help the nation extend from nowhere. The reason is: money is fluid, while the development needs time and hard working, step by step. We could apply the rule to either national development, or personal investment as well. We should found our dream upon a solid ground.
However, the solid dream is unwelcome, sometimes even detestable. That's why we can't escape tragedies of bubbles, repeatedly, in history.
泡沫或許可以帶來財富，卻絕對無法讓國家發展一步登天。原因在於：錢是流動的，發展卻是要腳踏實地下去一磚一瓦、用時間來換取進步。任何妄想一步登天的夢想都是要栽跟頭的，無論是國家發展、或是個人投資都是一樣，築夢要踏實。
很遺憾地，踏實的夢往往不受歡迎，甚至受到唾棄，也因此註定泡沫的悲劇將不斷歷史重演。
2. Where is the safe place? 安全標的在哪？
To be continued..
(待續...)
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